His and Hers Award Picks

Chuck Says:

Here are my observations on the big winners, whilst watching the telecast…

Javier Bardem delivering his passionate speech.
© Getty

Best Supporting Actor - Alright, so we saw it coming, but, it’s always good to see Javier Bardem at the awards platform. He deserved the win, too. Everyone in this category was strong, but Javier’s creepy (yet funny!) bad guy Anton Chigurh will go down in cinema history as one of the all-time memorable villains. Kudos to Bardem, too, for his passionate acceptance speech. I could only understand the half that was in English, but it sure was passionate, and I’m sure his mom appreciated it.

Best Supporting Actress - Whoa, Tilda Swinton won? There’s always a surprise winner in one of the supporting categories, but I’m not sure anyone in Vegas called this coup. Thinking back on it, congrats to Tilda. She was spot-on, and wasn’t afraid to show the sweat (literally) in Michael Clayton. Cate and Ruby might have won the accolades leading up to Oscar night, but this was a genuine surprise, followed by an equally funny tip-of-the-hat to her agent and Hollywood golden boy George Clooney.

Best Actress - OK., I take that back, the suprise win of the night might be Marion Cotillard for La Vie en Rose. She was an early frontrunner, but as of late, it looked like the only contender who could take the win away from Julie Christie was Juno’s little girl that could, Ellen Page. I would have liked that, but props to Cotillard. You could tell she was humbled and gracious for the award, and who doesn’t like that?

Best Actor - Daniel Day-Lewis is the man. Without his powerhouse performance, There Wouldn’t Be Blood. Day-Lewis’ and Bardem’s awards were the most predictable, and to me, the most deserved. Their characters’ souls couldn’t be more corrupted, but these are artful and complete transformations.

Best Director - I had expected an upset victory for P.T. – but I’m happy to be wrong. The Coens have been inspiring all of us film fans, along with filmmakers, for decades, and as with Martin Scorsese’s win last year, no one’s going to quibble with a Coen win. Plus, I like their no-b.s. approach in their acceptance speeches. Ethan saying only “Thank you,” and Joel saying something to the effect that making films now isn’t much different than the movies they were making when they were 12. Right on.

Best Picture - To quote the movie, “you can’t stop what coming” – and yep, it seems to be a No Country world we live in. All of the nominees were great, but No Country is the true “Best Picture” amongst them - even if you don’t like the ending (actually my favorite part of the film). I hope its Oscar win translates to more people going to see it for the first time - or going to see it again.

Marketa Irglova and Glen Hansard of Once perform their award-winning song.
© Getty

I’m happy, too, that Once picked up Best Song for “Falling Slowly"…and (was it an Academy first?) that they let Marketa Irglova come back onstage to complete her acceptance speech. I loved what she said about hope connecting all of us – whether it’s at the movies or in the real world.

Stacie Says:

There’s no question that No Country for Old Men is the clear frontrunner for Best Picture, now that we’re in the final countdown to Oscars. The film won best motion picture at the SAG Awards, earned eight Oscar nominations, has been named the year’s best film by countless critics’ associations and tops most Oscar oddsmakers’ lists. It’s what I called earlier in the awards race, and what I still think will win.

Best Actor Nominee, Daniel Day-Lewis, stars in There Will be Blood.
© Paramount Vantage

There’s a slight chance There Will Be Blood could split the Academy’s vote, leaving the door open for Michael Clayton. Atonement’s day came and went, and Juno is a really long shot, despite the fact that it made the most money of all the nominated films. I’d love to see it win, but among such weighty films as these, I think it’s too light to be considered seriously.

The star of Juno, Ellen Page.
© Fox Searchlight

Stacie Says:

Look out! Right now it looks like a virtual No Country for Old Men stampede, and everyone better just get out of the way. (If Daniel Day-Lewis doesn’t win Best Actor, I’ll eat my shoe. OK, my gym shoe.)

Oscar® nominees for Achievement in Directing, Ethan and Joel Coen.
© Getty

As the Best Picture frontrunner, No Country’s directors, Ethan and Joel Coen, are no doubt working on their Best Director acceptance speeches this very minute.

The Academy doesn’t often split Picture and Director winners, but at the same time, isn’t afraid to. Cases in point: In 2005 when Crash won over Best Director Ang Lee’s Brokeback Mountain; Roman Polanski’s out-of-left-field win for The Pianist, which lost to Chicago (2002). So it’s not common, but not unheard of, for a director to win while his film does not.

Of all the nominees I think Julian Schnabel has the least chance. I’m even surprised he was nominated, as his film The Diving Bell and the Butterfly was hardly a blip on anyone’s radar, and didn’t get a Best Picture nomination. Must be because his approach was totally different and creative, seen from the point of view of a man completely paralyzed other than his left eye. (Interesting that Atonement got the nod instead, whose director Joe Wright was left off the list.)

Maybe Paul Thomas Anderson for There Will Be Blood? The film earned eight nominations, as many as No Country, and with Day-Lewis’s consistent wins, is gaining momentum in this final stretch.

Jason Reitman, director of Juno.
© Fox Searchlight

It’s also possible those two top contenders could split the vote, leaving the race open to Jason Reitman, whose Juno clearly has lots of love and support in the Academy. There’s also Tony Gilroy for Michael Clayton, although I still contend that movie won’t walk away with much other than some deserved nominations.

Ultimately, I think the Coen brothers can polish up their mantels, and I can keep my gym shoes in the closet where they belong.

Chuck Says:

UPDATE:
Looking back at my earlier predictions, I see I called a close race for the Best Actor prize between George Clooney for Michael Clayton and Daniel Day-Lewis for There Will Be Blood. Scratch that. All signs (and a great SAG Awards acceptance speech) point to Day-Lewis winning this category hands down, two thumbs up and any other way you call it.

George Clooney is Michael Clayton.
© Warner Bros. Pictures

And that’s a good thing. As much as we loved Depp’s singing in Sweeney Todd and the surprise nominations for Tommy Lee Jones (In the Valley of Elah) and Viggo Mortensen (Eastern Promises) Day-Lewis’ performance was absolutely mesmerizing. As dark as the movie and his character get, there’s no taking your eyes off of him. He’s that brilliant.

Marion Cotillard stars in La Vie en Rose.
© Picturehouse

Same for Julie Christie in Away from Her. I still would love to see Ellen Page pull the underdog win for Juno, but who are we kidding? Christie’s the vet, Christie’s won nearly every award, and Christie’s phenomenal as the movie’s Alzheimer’s patient. Marion Cotillard could also pull the upset win for La Vie en Rose, but eh, I’m going with the safe and sure bet. Good to see, though, that Laura Linney’s up for The Savages and yes, Oscars, you love her, you really love Cate Blanchett (the surprise – well maybe it shouldn’t be that surprising – nominee for Elizabeth: The Golden Age).

Stacie Says:

I wasn’t surprised so much by who walked off with SAG Awards as I was by the show itself. With the strike putting all of Hollywood on hold and the recent star-less Golden Globes “ceremony,” awards season has been a bleak affair thus far.

So it was more than refreshing to get a glimpse of so many actors I love (and desperately miss in primetime), offering barely a word about the strike, simply giving thanks to their coworkers and the industry in a tight two-hour ceremony.

Best Supporting Actress winner Ruby Dee.
© Getty

Of the major film categories, the only “surprise” outcome was Ruby Dee’s Supporting Actress win over Cate Blanchett , who I thought would have won for her award-baiting, gender-bending turn in the Bob Dylan doc (I’m Not There). However, SAG had previously awarded Dee with a Life Achievement Award, and the acting community loves and respects her, so it wasn’t too shocking that she’d get her first acting award for American Gangster.

In a bizarro moment, presenter Josh Brolin offered some backhanded compliments for Hollywood and his own film’s directors, saying the industry’s emphasis on blockbusters is “backfiring” and how fun that is for “us actors.” He went on to call Joel and Ethan Coen “freaky little people” who did a “freaky little movie, whether you like the ending or not.”

Huh?

Daniel Day-Lewis accepts his
award for Best Actor.
© Getty

In contrast, Daniel Day-Lewis’s moving tribute in which he dedicated his Best Actor award to Heath Ledger was one of the evening’s highlights.

All in all, good show, people. Now if you can just get back to work, already?

Chuck Says:

The Oscars noms are now out, and all in all, the Academy did a good job, with a few glaring omissions.

Emile Hirsch and Sean Penn
on the set of Into the Wild.
© Paramount Vantage

As in, “what’s up with the Into the Wild near-shutout?” No nomination for director Sean Penn. No nomination for actor Emile Hirsch. No nomination for supporting actress Catherine Keener. And no nomination for Best Picture.

Yeah, yeah, ok, Juno, the other underdog critics’ (and audience) favorite did get a bunch of nods. But still, Wild coming up with nada is a huge disappointment. Everybody I’ve talked to loved this movie (at least up to its unconventional ending – although many loved it even more because of it).

Denzel Washington in American Gangster.
© Universal Pictures

The other less egregious omissions include…American Gangster shut out of most categories, notably Denzel Washington for Best Actor and Ridley Scott for Best Director; Angelina Jolie being a no-show in the Best Actress list for A Mighty Heart; and wow, no love at all for Hairspray.

Maybe you could see that coming with last year’s missing noms for Dreamgirls but still…Travolta and company put on a much more energetic and colorful show than some other recent musical nominees (i.e. Chicago and Moulin Rouge)

And then there’s another amazingly “what’s-up-with-that?” absentee. Sweeney Todd, where’d you go? Apparently, not to the Oscars dance. At least Johnny Depp and the film’s costumes and art direction got well-deserved nominations. But did it get snubbed in other major categories because it was a musical? Or too bloody? No, that can’t be it, since critics’ winners There Will Be Blood and No Country for Old Men were in full attendance in most of the big categories. Very, very strange.

Still, I’m a happy camper for the most part. The no-noms for Wild are disturbing, but I’m happy that another outdoors-y picture got in there: my fellow surfers in Surf’s Up was a surprise nominee for Best Animated Feature (take that, Homer Simpson! D’oh!) and kudos to 30-year-old Jason Reitman for picking up a Best Director nomination for the fabulous Juno, which is only his second feature film. A Oscar nod at age 30? Man, I’m starting to feel like a slacker.

Chuck Says:

Well, there wasn’t much of a show at the Golden Globes. But, there were winners. Not having a show, or celebrities, or acceptance speeches, may actually diminish the role of the Globes leading up to the main event (if there is one) that should be the ‘08 Academy Awards. Then again, perusing the winners, there were already surprises that seemed to favor “Oscar type” material leading up to the event.

Whereas the other critics groups have been favoring No Country for Old Men and There Will Be Blood, the Hollywood Foreign Press Association went with a few old stand-bys..big period pieces and/or established musicals with lavish set designs, huge (or English) movie stars, and the requisite number of positive reviews. Thus, ladies and gents, the winners for Best Drama and Best Musical or Comedy… Atonement and Sweeney Todd.

Keira Knightley stars in the Golden Globe’s pick for Best Motion Picture Drama, Atonement.
© Focus

Likewise, the acting honors seemed to follow tradition and esteemed reputations. Veterans (and previous Oscar winners) Julie Christie and Daniel Day-Lewis picked up the dramatic awards for Away from Her and There Will Be Blood, while Hollywood’s favorite son Johnny Depp and another period piece revelation, Marion Cotillard as singer Edith Piaf in La Vie En Rose, won for best acting in the Musical/Comedy category.

Best Supporting Actress winner, Cate Blanchett.
© Weinstein Company

For the supporting roles, the surprise was that there wasn’t much of a surprise. Cate Blanchett has already won accolades, and won here, too, for her version of Bob Dylan in I’m Not There. And Javier Bardem, a seeming lock for his embodiment of warped evilness in No Country, was a lock after all.

The writers’ strike spoiled the fun of what’s usually the most spontaneous amongst Hollywood awards shows, and somehow, the announced winners (although definitely acclaimed and arguably deserved) followed suit.

There’s still a lot of unpredictability ahead.

Will the Oscars even go on? Who knows? And yes, Atonement is a pageantry film built for Academy praise. But the overwhelming number of awards already heaped on the darker Blood and No Country shouldn’t be discounted yet.

Nor should other frontrunners like directors P.T. Anderson and the Coen Brothers, and actors such as Juno’s Ellen Page, Michael Clayton’s George Clooney and Gone Baby Gone’s Amy Ryan.

Amy Ryan in Gone Baby Gone.
© Miramax Films

A little over a month to go…which is plenty of time for some twists, surprises and shocking upsets.

Chuck Says:

The only thing certain about this year’s awards shows is uncertainty. Depending on how you look at it, that can be good or bad, but it will definitely, definitely be interesting.

Due to the ongoing writers’ strike, the future of the Golden Globe and Oscar red carpet proceedings is as cloudy as that White Russian cocktail in The Big Lebowski.

It’s a sad and hopefully not inevitable fact of life, but it is fitting with the up-in-the-air nature of this year’s season.

The things that were certain in 2007 (and the reason it’s hard to figure this all out) were lots of great movies and great box office. The men and women who make movies may not be getting along, but last year was one of their best ever in terms of commercial and critical acclaim.

The common complaint amongst critics now compiling top 10 lists is that there are too many good movies that could make the cut. No one film dominated. No one actress or actor is the clear winner. And if you’re a movie lover, that means you have lots to choose from at the cineplex and on DVD.

A couple of notes heading into cinema’s version of an international play-off:

The Coen brothers on the set of
No Country for Old Men.
© Miramax

The Coen brothers’ No Country for Old Men and P.T. Anderson’s There Will Be Blood are probably the lead-off contenders for the top prize, with No Country picking up Best Film from the prestigious New York Film Critics Circle and Blood proclaimed top dog by the L.A. Film Critics.

There Will Be Blood’s Daniel Day-Lewis and director, Paul Thomas Anderson.
© Paramount Vantage

Atonement, a period piece with pedigree, and Sean Penn’s affecting Into the Wild have both earned a bunch of SAG nominations, so don’t count them out. Plus, sleeper hit Juno could still be a Little Miss Sunshine-esque underdog.

Acting categories are equally mystifying. Will it be Marillion Cotillard as singer Edith Piaf in La Vie en Rose? Or veteran Julie Christie as a victim of Alzheimers in the poignant Away from Her? On the male front, will Johnny Depp as Sweeney Todd slash his way past Daniel Day-Lewis’ equally dark and fascinating performance in Blood?

What’s nice to see is that movie buffs and general audiences all got something at the movies in 07 (beyond just the sequels and threequels). Pictures like Juno, No Country for Old Men, Michael Clayton and Sweeney Todd have all shown that the line between commercial movies and critical darlings is a thin one indeed. Movies like Paul Greengrass’ The Bourne Ultimatum, and performances like Will Smith’s in I Am Legend further show there’s room to keep merging great filmmaking with big, money-making vehicles.

It’s been a wild ride so far, and likely to just get wilder.

Chuck Says:

The Academy has a tough choice for this year’s Best Picture, but that’s a good thing. There is no one dominant movie. There are, however, three emerging from the critics’ picks and they are all "bloody
good."

Ethan and Joel Coen on the set of
No Country for Old Men.
© Miramax Films

It’s a showdown between the Coen Brothers’ slow-burning, modern western No Country for Old Men, " P.T. Anderson’s even more tightly coiled There Will Be Blood and Tim Burton’s blood-spurting musical, Sweeney Todd.

All three films are deserving. The filmmakers are in complete control over their craft, No Country’s Javier Bardem, Blood’s Daniel Day-Lewis and Sweeney’s Johnny Depp deliver unforgettable performances as embodiments of warped humanity, and all three movies are bold cinematic achievements.

The one thing that could throw this race out of whack is the “dark” factor. I think the best picture is No Country for Old Men, although There Will Be Blood is a close second. But I don’t know that I would watch them over and over. Objectively, these films should win. Were they my favorites? Umm, no.

Thankfully, 2007 also offered some lighter fare covering a wide range of genres and moods.

Juno deserves Best Picture consideration, not just a Best Screenplay nomination (which is what many great movies over the years [i.e. The Usual Suspects] receive as a consolation prize). Besides the jarring effect of the dialogue in the first ten minutes, the movie’s pretty flawless. It has it all - expert direction from Jason Reitman, a breakthrough performance from Ellen Page as a sassy pregnant teen, and a perfect supporting cast.

Another movie that will likely get the nomination, but also deserves a win, is Sean Penn’s Into the Wild.  You
will never forget its one-on-one scenes between Emile Hirsch as young traveler Christopher McCandless and
the people he meets: Catherine Keener’s hippie mom, Hal Holbrook’s grandfather figure and Vince Vaughn’s
likeable farmer.

Stacie Says:

Maybe it’s me, but does it seem like more actors turned in powerhouse performances in ’07 than in previous years? Awards givers didn’t have to plumb the indies for standouts this year, either; a lot of big-studio movies offered plenty of worthy acting, in some cases by more than one performer in the same film.

Some actors even have multiple (if long) shots at nominations: Russell Crowe for 3:10 to Yuma (Best Actor)/American Gangster (Supporting) , Josh Brolin for No Country for Old Men (Best Actor)/American Gangster (Supporting), Philip Seymour Hoffman for The Savages (Best Actor)/Before the Devil Knows You’re Dead (Best Actor)/ Charlie Wilson’s War (Supporting).

Paul Dano and Daniel Day-Lewis in
There Will Be Blood.
© Paramount Vantage

I’m going to bet Daniel Day-Lewis will be the winner this year for There Will Be Blood. Critics are going crazy for his performance as a slick, misanthropic oilman; he hasn’t won since 1990; and the film, releasing the day after Christmas, will be fresh on voters’ minds. His character was as unlikeable as they come, which some say could hurt his chances.

Johnny Depp stars in Sweeney Todd.
© Paramount Pictures

Personally, I’d love the talented, good-looking, seriously eccentric Johnny Depp to finally win this year. He’s been nominated twice and starred in diverse roles in so many notable big-budget and indie movies. Playing the demon barber in Sweeney Todd is the capper on a brilliant career. Awarding him would be a long overdue gesture and a warranted one. He did just get nominated for a Golden Globe—albeit in the musical/comedy category.

Michael Clayton stars George Clooney.
© Warner Bros. Pictures

Other obvious contenders…George Clooney gave Michael Clayton’s troubled, back-room-dealing lawyer tremendous depth and complexity. He’s both vulnerable and world-weary as the go-to guy for lawyers in need of damage control, at the same time looking for his own misplaced moral compass. Critics loved the film—but it didn’t really catch fire with the general public.

Perennial nominee Denzel Washington did a great job in a good movie (American Gangster) and I think he’ll get a nomination for sure. But the win? I don’t think so. Same with Russell Crowe (3:10 to Yuma); besides, he’s got competition in that movie with Christian Bale’s lauded performance. James McAvoy got one of Atonement’s seven Golden Globe nominations, but even though this is the kind of epic period drama the Academy loves, I doubt he’ll win the Oscar.

It’s gonna be a good, close race!

Chuck Says:

This week’s category is Best Actress at the Academy Awards. Unlike its sister category, Best Supporting Actress, the winner here is often times exactly who you thought it would be.

Last year, it was almost an after thought when awards season queen Helen Mirren finally picked up the top actress prize at the Oscars. Ditto 2005 when Reese Witherspoon won for Walk the Line. And likewise for 2004 Million Dollar Baby winner Hilary Swank.

Joaquin Phoenix and Reese Witherspoon
in Walk the Line.

© 20th Century Fox

So what’s in store this year? As with the Best Picture category, there isn’t one frontrunner. But, it does seem extraordinarily likely that three names are going to make people’s lists for sure-shot nominations.

Marion Cotillard’s already picked up the L.A. Film Critics’ award for her portrayal of legendary singer Edith Piaf in La Vie En Rose,  and veteran actress Julie Christie topped the National Board of Review and the prestigious New York Film Critics’ lists.. Both are nominated for Golden Globe Awards.

My own personal selection would be Ellen Page from Juno, who is included on all of the major critics’ best-of lists. Consolation may need to come in the form of a Spirit Award, but it’s already been a breakout role for the 20-year-old, who’s so believable, original and heartbreaking as the movie’s pregnant teen almost-mommy.

The great thing about this year’s actress race is that other than those three being nominated, it’s still anyone’s guess who’ll also be nominated, and who will win.

Julie Christie stars in Away from Her.
© Lionsgate

I’ll place my bet on the Academy giving the award to Julie Christie, who’s been a Hollywood icon for years. She holds herself with grace offscreen, and onscreen in Away from Her, and would have the cachet of winning the award 40+ years after her first Best Actress win in 1965’s Darling. Hollywood loves a classic comeback…even though Christie never went away (she was nominated in ‘98 for Afterglow).

Surprises in the acting category, though, are the most fun. Adrian Brody’s (and the audience’s) look of astonishment when he picked up Best Actor for The Pianist was great.

Amy Adams is Princess Giselle in Enchanted.
© Walt Disney Pictures

Wouldn’t it be cool to see Amy Adams from Enchanted"actually win the prize? Or maybe Angelina Jolie could jump back into the spotlight and grab hold of a victory for A Mighty Heart, followed by a mighty acceptance speech.

One incredible scenario I’d love to see would be Keri Russell winning for Waitress. It would be a fitting and emotional tribute to her co-star, director and mentor Adrienne Shelley, who was murdered just months before its acclaimed debut at the Sundance Film Festival, and its success in art house theaters last summer.

Chuck Says:

At first glance, this year’s Best Supporting Actor category seems as much of a no-brainer as the Best Supporting Actress race (which will be won by
Cate Blanchett for I’m Not There; see our previous predictions here). Javier Bardem – as the most memorable embodiment of evil since Hannibal Lecter – should win for No Country for Old Men.

However, the most predictable thing about the Oscars is that one of the Best Supporting Acting awards is always unpredictable. So while Bardem really is the deserving winner – he’s the cherry on top of No Country’s cinematic sundae – there are some other potential surprise candidates
who could sneak in and steal his award.

The most likely non-Bardem winner would be Hal Holbrook in Into
the Wild. I would actually love to see Holbrook and his co-star Catherine Keener sweep the Best Supporting categories. He is that good and affecting in the film, and their performances anchor
what’s already a great, albeit imperfect, movie.

Ben Foster in 3:10 To Yuma.
© Lionsgate

If not Holbrook or Bardem,
Ben Foster in 3:10 to Yuma would be a great choice to pull off an upset. As a young upstart among a cast of veterans in this surprise western hit, Foster is as memorable as co-star titans Russell
Crowe and Christian Bale. While Bardem’s performance is a landmark piece of onscreen villainy, Foster is first-rate as a villain’s most trustworthy, sadistic sidekick.

Others leading the field include Tom Wilkinson as a desperate lawyer facing a crisis of conscience in
Michael Clayton; John Travolta as loveable Momma Turnblad in Hairspray; and Paul Dano as a young pastor facing down big bad oilman Daniel Day-Lewis in There Will Be Blood.

Paul Dano in There Will Be Blood.
© Paramount Vantage

And then there are two Hollywood stars who’ve been around for decades, but whose talent is only now being fully exploited. Robert Downey Jr., the former Hollywood bad boy who’s been born again as an A-list working actor, was mesmerizing as the obsessed, alcoholic journalist in Zodiac. And praise is also due to Josh Brolin, who broke out this year in a lead role in No Country, and several memorable supporting turns in Grindhouse, In the Valley of Elah and American
Gangster.

For this ‘80s movie buff, seeing ex-“Goonie” Brolin mentioned for an Oscar 20 years later, and Downey – the star of Less Than Zero – being
cast as next summer’s superhero in Iron Man…it’s movie nirvana.

Stacie Says:

The Academy Supporting Actress category is an Oscar pool victory killer. It’s nearly impossible to predict who the Academy will go for: on-the-rise comers (Jennifer Hudson)? Lengthy careers (Judi Dench)? Kids (Anna Paquin)? Calling the Supporting Actress category is such risky business, no wonder people still suspect Jack Palance misread Marisa Tomei’s name as the winner for My Cousin Vinny, despite years of Academy protest to the contrary.

Roberts with Hanks in Charlie Wilson’s War.
© Universal Pictures

This year, I’d go out on a limb to say it might be LESS of a crap shoot than most years, simply because of the dearth of potential nominees. Early word has Atonement’s Saorsie Ronen (meh), No Country for Old Men’s Kelly MacDonald (brief but terrific scenes), Gone Baby Gone’s Amy Ryan (also good in Dan in Real Life), Charlie Wilson’s War’s Julia Roberts (an obvious pitch) and the one nominee everyone agrees is a lock, I’m Not There’s Cate Blanchett (a woman playing  not just any man, but Bob “Voice of the ’60s” Dylan? Stunt casting that’s sure to appeal to the Academy’s aging hippies and younger hipsters).

Blanchett as Bob Dylan.
© Weinstein

Others who I think are possible but less likely nominees are Vanessa Redgrave (Atonement), Meryl Streep (Lions for Lambs), and Susan Sarandon  (In the Valley of Elah)–but to me, those venerable actresses have turned in better work in better films and will be held to higher standards. Could this be Marisa Tomei’s
(Before the Devil Knows Your Dead) year of vindication? Personally, I’d love to see Knocked Up’s wisecracking, ball-busting Leslie Mann at least get a nomination, but that’s a long shot even if the Golden Globes go there.

Ultimately, I think Blanchett, a previous winner in this category for her turn as Katherine Hepburn in The Aviator, will walk off with Oscar again. She was nominated  (for Notes on a Scandal) last year, and she may get a nom as Best Actress this year for Elizabeth: The Golden Age, but I’m Not There is exactly the daring, high-minded experiment that makes the Academy sit up and take notice.

Chuck Says:

For The Best Comedy or Musical category at the Golden Globes is often a bellwether of assorted Oscar nominations. The last four years’ Globe winners in this category (Dreamgirls, Walk the Line, Sideways and Lost in Translation) all received various Oscar nominations, although none of them went on to win the Academy Award for Best Picture (which is usually reserved for dramas).

This year, the movie everyone has their eyes on is the sixth Tim Burton-Johnny Depp collaboration Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street, based on a real 19th century legend and Stephen Sondheim’s classic Broadway musical. The trailer looks fantastic. And even though Depp’s an untested singer, hey, if he could pull off Captain Jack Sparrow for an Oscar nomination, chances are good that this flick (and his performance in it) will be among the Globe nominees.

Another seeming lock for a Globe nod is the well-reviewed Hairspray, with Travolta, as proud mama Edna Turnblad, a candidate for Best Actor (or even Best Actress, if the Globes had a sense of humor). The movie received a 93 percent positive rating on review site Rotten Tomatoes, and Travolta has a loyal following among the Hollywood Foreign Press Association, the group that presents the Golden Globes.

Apatow’s Knocked Up.
© Universal Pictures

On the comedy front, Judd Apatow was 2007’s reigning king, directing the hit Knocked Up and producing summer’s other funniest comedy, Superbad. I laughed hardest at Superbad, but my bet is that Knocked Up, which was targeted for an older demographic, will get the Golden Globe nomination.

Other contenders for comedy would be the tale of a special pregnant teen named Juno (a winning sophomore effort from Thank You for Smoking director Jason Reitman) and Steve Carell’s movie about a widower dad on holiday with his family in Dan in Real Life.

Carell and Cook in Dan in Real Life.
© Buena Vista Pictures

Having seen all but Sweeney Todd (which hasn’t been screened yet for critics), I’m glad to report that it’s a good field this year for this category. If Depp and Burton can pull off their eccentric, darkly witty period musical, it’s the foregone winner. Two maverick Hollywood titans, an established story and the cachet “cool” factor…it’s a no-brainer.

It’s my personal hope - and yes, I’ve been thumping the drum for this one for awhile - that the Globes will not overlook Once, the small, perfect musical tale of two musicians who discover the once-in-a-lifetime experience of each other.

Stacie Says:

For our second He Said/She Said debate, Chuck and I are reviewing potential SAG candidates for Ensemble Cast.

The Screen Actors Guild Awards nominations will be announced on Dec. 20, and the category to watch is the organization’s equivalent to the Best Picture Academy Award:  Outstanding Performance by a Cast.

Last year the award deservedly went to Little Miss, whose players (Steve Carell, Greg Kinnear,